On a recent episode of the All-In Podcast, co-host Jason Calacanis made an argument that the ongoing war with Iran could unravel Donald Trump‘s second term and alienate the very base that put him in office, including some of his most prominent media supporters.
Calacanis laid out what he described as a series of consequential mistakes by the Trump administration, anchoring his case in the Iran conflict. “Starting a war like this specifically with Iran, that’s what we were told was the reason to vote for President Trump,” he said. “He was not going to take us down this path. He was not going to risk World War III. He was not going to risk a nuclear possibility.”
He then named names, pointing to a growing rebellion among Trump’s most loyal media allies. “You have all the MAGA supporters from, you know, Tucker to MTG to Rogan, Matt Walsh, Megan Kelly, they are all up in arms about this is the end of MAGA and this is, you know, a massive betrayal.”
Rogan, whose endorsement of Trump ahead of the 2024 election was considered a significant cultural moment, is now reportedly among those expressing alarm. Calacanis framed this as a signal of just how deep the discontent runs within the MAGA coalition, not at the fringes but at its very center.
Calacanis went on to argue that the political consequences could be severe and lasting. “If this continues for another six months, it’s basically going to result in the Democrats doing a clean sweep in the midterms,” he said, noting that polling showed the chances of a Democratic sweep had risen to 45%.
Calacanis continued: “The Democrats are going to sweep, then they’re going to win in 2028, and the entire agenda of MAGA and Trump’s 2.0 will be gone.”
He grouped the Iran war alongside other points of frustration among the base, including the unreleased Epstein files and what he characterized as unnecessary cruelty from ICE agents, though he noted Trump had addressed the latter by removing Kristi Noem. “You start putting these things together,” Calacanis said.
David Sacks offered partial agreement. “It doesn’t take a political genius to understand that long wars are unpopular. It will hurt the Republicans in the midterms or ’28 if this does turn into a long war.”
He argued, however, that Trump’s political instincts have always favored swift, decisive military action, and that the president would likely seek an off-ramp.
Calacanis was blunt about what he believed Trump needed to do. “If he doesn’t find an off-ramp quickly, they’re going to lose both houses in the midterms.” He added that he believed Trump would ultimately find that exit.
