A passionate pickleball player who hits the courts three times a week is sounding the alarm about what he sees as an inevitable crash coming to the sport’s booming industry. John, a self-described “pickleball lover,” believes the rapidly expanding pickleball scene is following the same dangerous trajectory that led to the bubble tea industry’s spectacular rise and fall.
“I want you guys to know that I’m actually a pickleball lover. I play like three times a week. But that being said, I do think there’s a bubble happening in the pickleball industry,” John explained during a recent discussion about market trends.
His concerns stem from observing similar patterns across multiple industries over the years. “It’s like the property industry, every 10 years, there’s always a bubble. In stock market also, every few years, there’s a bubble. In crypto, every four years, there was a bubble. In Boba industry, at one point of time, it was like every eight years.”
John draws particular parallels to the bubble tea craze, where he witnessed countless businesses offering essentially identical products with only superficial differences. “If you remember those days, everyone was just selling the same old thing, milk and brown sugar. The only difference is that bottle, whether is it a dragon or is it a bear? I thought it was stupid. The only innovation they had was the animal in front of that bottle.”
The pickleball enthusiast has watched his local scene transform dramatically in less than a year. “I got into pickleball October last year and at that point of time, there were only a few courts. Right now, the courts are sprouting all over and I see some people jumping in just simply because they saw an opportunity.”
He points to the sport’s current cultural moment as both a driver of growth and a warning sign. “Your friends are playing pickleball. Everyone is playing pickleball. You go on Instagram, every influencers are posting about pickleball. Because if you are a pickleball player, that’s the cool thing to be right now, right? So everyone is opening pickleball courts.”
The rapid expansion has John predicting a shakeout similar to what bubble tea experienced. Many current operators, he argues, are simply building basic courts without differentiating themselves. “What’s going to happen next is this. The standard is going to get higher. And what’s going to happen is those guys who were the early opportunists who only built a court. That’s all they did. They built a court.”
Meanwhile, newer entrants are raising the bar significantly. “The new players that’s coming in, they are building premium courts and giving it at affordable prices. They are building community. They’re building a community. The key is really community. And I think these guys are the ones that will survive.”
Looking at successful bubble tea chains that weathered the industry downturn, John sees clear lessons for pickleball businesses. “You look at 2018, the bubble tea hype burst. But today, do people still drink bubble tea? Yes. You look at Haiti. Haiti is still doing very well. They have their own community. You look at Chaji. They are doing extremely well. They differentiate themselves. And they have their own community.”
John’s predictions extend beyond just business closures. He expects pickleball to become so mainstream that it will be integrated into residential developments and public facilities. “My prediction is next year, 2026, we will see developers launching pickleball courts in their condo. We are already seeing community centers being converted into pickleball courts. We are seeing goals building pickleball courts and then renting it out.”
However, this expansion could accelerate the bubble’s burst through basic supply and demand economics. “Don’t have too much. It’s all about demand versus supply. I think it’s basic economics. When there’s oversupply, the demand will start to shrink.”
John distinguishes between committed players and casual participants, suggesting the latter group’s eventual departure will reveal the market’s true size. “Every business, you have people who are the raving fans and people are here just to check it out. I think there’s a lot of people in pickleball who are just checking it out.”
His timeline for the reckoning is specific and stark. “I predict 2026 will be the year where we will see a lot of pickleball courts for sale. Yes, we will see a lot of pickleball courts for sale.”