Researchers at MIT have developed an unprecedented tool to forecast the impact of artificial intelligence on the American workforce: digital replicas of 151 million working Americans. These software counterparts are designed to identify which jobs face the greatest risk from AI displacement, potentially years before layoffs occur.
The system, dubbed the Iceberg Index, maps more than 32,000 skills across 923 occupations in 3,000 counties nationwide. Unlike previous studies focused primarily on coastal tech hubs, this research reveals AI’s potential impact across every state and industry in America.
According to sources, the findings are striking. The study states that AI can already take over tasks tied to nearly 12% of the U.S. labor market, representing approximately $1.2 trillion in wages. Careers in healthcare, finance, and professional services face particularly significant exposure.
The “iceberg” metaphor proves apt: while only 2% of AI-driven wage disruption is currently visible in tech centers, researchers discovered a hidden layer of exposure five times larger lurking beneath the surface. This unseen threat cuts across industries and geographies, challenging assumptions that AI displacement would remain concentrated in traditional technology sectors.
What distinguishes this research from typical academic exercises is its practical application. The MIT team has created an interactive simulation environment allowing policymakers to experiment with different interventions before committing resources. States can test various policy levers, from workforce development funding to training program modifications, and observe how changes in technology adoption might affect local employment and GDP.
Several states are already putting the Iceberg Index to work. Tennessee, Utah, and North Carolina—all co-authors on the report—are using the tool to evaluate potential policies. Tennessee has advanced furthest, building its own AI and work dashboard that tracks occupational exposure and wage effects statewide, directly informing policy and spending decisions.
Researchers emphasize that the Iceberg Index isn’t a countdown clock to mass unemployment. Rather, it functions as an early warning system, enabling lawmakers preparing billion-dollar reskilling and training investments to strategically allocate resources before economic shocks hit vulnerable communities.
By providing granular data down to the zip code level and offering “what-if” scenario testing capabilities, MIT’s digital twin of the American workforce gives policymakers something they’ve never had before: the ability to see around corners and prepare communities for workforce transformation before displacement occurs.